Evolution's 2025 Revenue Stalls as iGaming Headwinds Build

Evolution AB, the live casino powerhouse, just wrapped up a pretty underwhelming 2025. Revenue growth flatlined at a measly 1.3% year-over-year, hitting €2.1 billion for the full year. Q4 was no better, scraping by with a 0.7% uptick to €538.4 million. Sure, they beat analyst expectations slightly, but let's be real, this is a far cry from the double-digit booms we've seen in past years.

iGaming Slowdown Hits Hard

The big story here? iGaming's cooling off. That's where Evolution makes most of its money, and it showed. Full-year iGaming revenue grew just 1.1% to €1.97 billion, with Q4 even weaker at 0.2% to €504.7 million. North America, its golden goose, finally hit a wall. Q4 revenue there dipped 2.6% to €175.6 million amid fierce competition and market saturation.

It's not all doom, though. Europe still delivered solid gains, up 3.8% in Q4 to €250.1 million, thanks to strong slots performance. Latin America chipped in too, jumping 16.3% in the quarter to €27.2 million. But those bright spots couldn't offset the broader drag.

Slots Keep the Lights On

Evolution's RNG slots business is firing on all cylinders. Full-year revenue soared 35.7% to €173.2 million, and Q4 clocked in at €45.8 million, up 35.5%. Hits like Sweet Bonanza and Gates of Olympus from their Light & Wonder partnership are crushing it. This segment now accounts for about 9% of total revenue, pretty impressive for something that's only been around since mid-2023.

Earnings Dip, But Cash Flows Strong

EBITDA took a hit, landing at €1.32 billion for the year (down from €1.42 billion in 2024) with a 62.8% margin. Q4 EBITDA was €329.5 million, or 61.2%, still healthy, but the pressure's on. Profit took the biggest punch, full-year net profit slid 11.9% to €1.02 billion, and Q4 dropped 19.4% to €262.4 million.

Free cash flow remains rock-solid at €1.16 billion for the year, covering 88% of EBITDA. They've got €1.8 billion in cash and equivalents, plus €350 million undrawn credit, plenty of dry powder for whatever comes next.

Looking Ahead: Steady Growth, No Fireworks

CEO Martin Carlesund isn't sugarcoating it. He pointed to "ongoing iGaming pressure" from regulatory squeezes and shifting player habits, especially in North America. But he's bullish on slots scaling up and new markets like Brazil opening doors.

Guidance for 2026? Expect 6-10% revenue growth and EBITDA margins around 62-63%. No aggressive buybacks planned this year, they'll play it safe and focus on organic expansion. Shares dipped 3-4% after the report, reflecting investor jitters, but at a forward P/E of 12x, it might be a bargain for the patient.

Evolution in social casinos is not crumbling, but the glory days of hypergrowth feel distant. They'll need slots to keep accelerating and fresh markets to reignite iGaming if they want to get back in gear.

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Evolution